Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
